Cool your jets feds - U of C researcher warns airport sale could raise what Canadians pay to fly
Rules on fees must be law before bids open for Pearson, Vancouver, Montréal-Trudeau and Calgary
CALGARY, Oct. 8, 2026 — Canadian flyers could pay more for decades if Ottawa sells the right to operate the country’s four largest airports before it caps what those airports can charge, says a new paper from the Research Program in Competition and Regulation at the University of Calgary.
On Sept. 15 the prime minister said the government will seek long-term concessions for Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montréal-Trudeau and Calgary, and spend the proceeds on other infrastructure. Five days later the transport minister said fees would be “partially regulated,” but he would not guarantee that prices will not rise. Who would regulate the airports, what the rules would say, and whether those rules will exist before bids open are still undecided.
“The price a bidder will pay depends on what the rules will let it charge,” said Aidan Hollis, professor of economics at the University of Calgary and author of Holding Pattern: The Case for Regulating Canada’s Airports Before Sale. “If the rules come after the price, the government will have sold the right to raise charges at airports travellers can rarely avoid. Flyers will pay for that every time they book.”
Passengers have little choice. An airline serving a major Canadian city generally cannot skip that city’s main airport. A higher charge shows up in the fare, or in fewer flights and higher prices on the seats that remain. It also raises air-cargo costs, and the price of goods moved by air.
Airport improvement fees are already 32 to 42 per cent of revenue at the four airports. No independent body reviews those fees or capital spending. Airports remain the only part of the federal transportation system without a legislated economic framework.
The paper says a sale before regulation fails flyers twice: users face higher prices and weaker service, and Ottawa cannot tell whether its cheque is payment for efficient airports or for future charges collected from passengers. Heathrow has been private since 1987 and is still under a licence that caps prices. Australia monitored instead of controlling, chose that approach weeks before selling Sydney, and its regulator now says monitoring is not a real constraint. Sydney earned a 20.8 per cent return on aeronautical assets in 2024–25.
A for-profit operator could still make sense if it can achieve real efficiencies, for example by reducing costs or improving services. But there is a real risk that all that happens is increased prices to generate profits for new owners. The paper says bids should not open until the regulator, the fee rules and the treatment of federal rent are already law.
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